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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.